2010 NFL Draft RB Rankings - Garda
by Andrew Garda on 03/04/10-
While there are some very good running backs at the top of this class, I think there is tremendous value in the mid to late rounds in this group. I believe this will be an especially good class for teams looking for a back who not only can run the ball, but contribute on special teams in the return game.
- 1. CJ Spiller, Clemson 5’10” 194lbs - After returning to Clemson for his Senior year, Spiller put up his best numbers ever, totaling 1,715 total offensive yards and 16 touchdowns. There had been concern in many circles that Spiller was risking too much by remaining in college, given his injury history. Instead Spiller just capped off a career in which he set 31 school records and became the ACC’s career leader in All-Purpose yards (7,588).
Spiller is speed demon who actually runs just as fast with his pads as he does without. His quickness and burst make him a risk to break a big run at any time. He shows great patience and vision and he’s deadly once he gets into space. Spiller is adept at catching the ball as well.
Oh, he’s also a ridiculously good returner.
It’s not all sunshine and lollipops. Spiller isn’t as big as teams like their backs to be and he’s not the most physical either. As such, he sometimes does not pick up the tough yards, especially in short yardage situations.
Despite being good at catching a pass, how often he’ll be on the field in passing downs could be questionable since he’s not a very good blocker. With his smallish size,you have to be a bit concerned with durability and how much of a load he could carry. Despite these things, Spiller’s upside is tremendous and he will become a very good running back in the NFL. With backs like Maurice Jones-Drew succeeding despite size concerns and Spiller’s special teams explosiveness, some team will take him in the first and be ecstatic they did. - 2. Jahvid Best, CAL 5’9” 190 - Best is another back whose combination of speed, explosiveness, pass-catching ability and kick return skills will have teams taking a very long look at him this spring.
The Cal running back shows patience waiting for holes to open up and blocks to form, and then the explosiveness to burst through when they do. If he needs to run outside, Best’s speed can allow him to turn the corner and his ability to cut back if need be, keeps defenders guessing about where he might go. Best has good hands, but doesn’t run the crispest routes nor run them hard. Best doesn’t shy away from contact, which in part lead to a season ending concussion.
The concussion is a concern for teams as is his size. While Best’s speed makes him dangerous in space, he occasionally loses balance in the middle of a move and this can make him easy to tackle.
Best is another player who has the ability to break giant plays in both the return and run game. His biggest issue is the ease with which he c an be brought down. His occasional balance issues and his struggles to break arm tackles are big concerns. We know he’s tough—he just doesn’t run like it as much as we’d like to see. If he can add some bulk and work on breaking through tacklers, he could become a solid back to pair in a backfield. As it stands, he’s likely to start out as a third-down back who could develop into more. - 3. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State 5’11” 220 - Mathews isn’t the fastest back in the draft but he is a brutal inside runner who can run through tackles and can get downhill fast. He can also get through the hole as good as any other back in the class and make a defender miss when doing so. Of course, this isn’t always a good thing as he has a tendency to try and run through a tackler when he’d be better served making the defender miss.
Mathews is much better running inside versus outside, where his lack of top-shelf speed makes it hard for him to gain an edge and turn the corner. On the other hand, his aggression and physicality serves him exceedingly well in blocking duties and he’s likely to be able to contribute right away in that facet of the game. It also allows him to wear defenders down as a game progresses and helps him get the tough extra yards at the end of a run.
Mathews should fit in well as part of a tandem backfield and his ability to punish the opposition would allow him to wear a defense down, setting up a faster, more dynamic back to break loose for big plays. - 4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford 6’0” 234 - Toby Gerhart is a pretty solid back who possesses all the skills needed to be a solid—though perhaps not elite—running back in the NFL. Gerhart isn’t tremendously explosive, isn’t terribly quick and doesn’t have elite speed but what he does bring to the table is a great set of inside running skills.
Gerhart is a very patient runner who will wait for a hole to open up and when it does, hit it hard. He runs with his shoulders down and makes it hard for tacklers to get a bead on him. It also puts him in a good position to hit defenders hard, and often he can knock a player back or failing that will either run through arm tackles or drag defenders along for a few extra yards.
As I mentioned, Gerhart isn’t known for mind-blowing speed, which can make it hard for him to get the corner on outside runs without blockers out in front. While he is great at keeping the pads low on inside runs, he pops up and runs too upright when he breaks outside which also affects his ability to break tackles. When he is able to break one outside, he actually moves a little faster than expected and seems to revert back to the solid form he shows going inside.
Gerhart didn’t catch many balls or lead block a ton at Stanford, but he has shown he can catch the ball well when asked and has the aggressive nature that you need to block effectively out in front of a runner. He is solid in pass protection though at times a little inconsistent. With work, he should improve in both arenas.
Toby Gerhart is a little raw in several areas but has all the tools to succeed in the NFL. Like several of the backs on this list, he’ll start out as more of a role player but when he gains some experience and sands off the rough edges, he has a chance to be a very good back for a long time to come. - 5. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech 5’11” 235 - Dwyer is a great inside runner who runs aggressively with the ball and hits the hole hard. He doesn’t easily get knocked off his feet when hit and can break through arm tackles allowing him to gain plenty of yards after contact. Dwyer loves to deliver a hit on those in his way and he will violently go through would-be tacklers. This isn’t to say he can’t go around defenders—he has a quick jump-cut and can change direction quickly if his lane is clogged.
Dwyer did not carry outside much at Georgia Tech so it’s something he needs to work on. When he did go outside, it was almost exclusively on a pitch. Generally he does that well, but sometimes he has problems securing the ball, which slows him down too much. Dwyer will need to work hard to improve that aspect of his game once in the NFL. He’ll also need to up his blocking skills, both on run and pass plays. He stays often too upright in pass blocking, allowing himself to be pushed backwards and even when he is doing it well, he is way too inconsistent. He barely blocked in the run game at all, so he’s got just as much work to do, though his aggression running the ball bodes well for his potential.
I think Dwyer has the potential to be a very good back at the next level. However right now, he’s pretty one dimensional. He’s not a great blocker, hasn’t much experience running outside and isn’t an experienced pass catcher. Also his hard-charging playing style causes some concerns for his durability long-term. I’m bullish on him overall though and think that he has what it takes to become a complete back who can wear them down inside, and then finish the defense off late in the game. - 6. Montario Hardesty, Tennessee 5’10” 204 - A fifth year senior who only started one season at Tennessee, Hardesty is a natural athlete who had issues with injury through much of his college career. He runs aggressively, showing good vision and pretty good ball skills. Hardesty is a hard worker and has yet to reach his potential.
Aside from durability concerns, Hardesty is quicker than he is fast and isn’t going to run away from defenders for big plays. He also runs a bit upright, which adds to his injury issues and makes it harder for him make tacklers miss. With his raw physical tools, Hardesty has upside yet to be fulfilled but his injury history and limited track record make it hard to say what his chances are to reach that potential.
My feeling is that if a team is patient with him, he will develop into a very nice back to pair with another player in the backfield. Where he will probably be chosen (sometime at the back end of round three or later) should make him a good value for a team. - 7. Charles Scott, LSU 5’11” 239 - Scott is another guy in this class who is a very good inside runner. He is a very strong runner who can break tackles and gain yardage after contact. He hits the hole hard and will hit tacklers hard if they get in his way. If he doesn’t flat out knock the guy over, he’ll drag him for an extra yard or two.
He’s not terribly fast and doesn’t have great explosiveness so he isn’t running away or past anyone very often. He doesn’t have a great deal of blocking experience and isn’t very useful in the passing game catching the ball either.
Scott has the size and attitude to be a very effective back who can wear down defenses and punish them late in games. There are a few worries because of a broken collarbone, though I really think it’s getting more focus than it should. Before the collarbone, he was fine and the focusing on it reminds me of the over-hyping of Adrian Peterson’s collarbone. Bear in mind-NOT saying he’s Adrian Peterson. Just that sometimes people focus on small things and make them big. If it isn’t healed, he’ll drop - but he’s not injury prone in my mind.
Scott is a guy who has the potential to carry the ball quite a few times, although he has a few things to work out. With good Combine and Pro Day efforts, he could easily move up this list and I think he will improve to become a very good every down back. - 8. Joe McKnight, USC 6’ 190 - Joe McKnight is a tremendous athlete and brings explosive speed with a good top end to the table. He’s sudden, able to cut on a dime and blows through holes even when they aren’t too big. His acceleration is incredible and he can get to the corner ahead of defenders rushing to meet him.
On the downside, McKnight isn’t ideal in either size and because of it, he had to fight through a ton of small nagging injuries his whole career. He tends to dance a little too much and lacks aggression when he runs. McKnight also tries to run outside way too much when a hole isn’t quickly found, so needs to work on his patience and wait for a space to form, or at least do a better job of following his blockers.
Despite being fairly elusive, McKnight struggles to gain many yards after contact. He runs too upright which will add to his durability concerns. All of which makes it difficult for him to gain good yards after first contact. He will also need to work very hard to improve his blocking skills which are incredibly raw. Has also been known to cough the ball up.
McKnight has a lot of upside and I feel that he would have been better served by remaining in college one more year.While there are questions about his durability and and size, I believe his biggest problem is his lack of patience. Not waiting for a hole to open, not waiting for his blockers to line up, running anxious and out of control - all of these things can be corrected and I believe McKnight can overcome them. Meanwhile his speed and elusiveness can allow him to provide value in the return game while a team works with him on his issues. - 9. LaGarrette Blount, Oregon 6’ 239 - Blount is a big, strong back who will bruise defenders as he runs the ball. While he is a heavy back, Blount shows more agility than one expects from him. While not blazing fast, he is quick in making his cuts, though he lacks overall explosiveness.
Blount has a tendency to run a bit too upright at times, which can hinder his ability to break tackles and leaves in open to some big hits. He isn’t much of a pass catcher and I’m not convinced this is an area of his game which will ever improve. He can block, so he might see work on third down, but knowing he is a not a pass-catching back might limit the team utilizing him thusly and allow a defense to ignore a facet of the offensive unit on the field.
But that is all minor compared to the biggest question facing Blount: his ill-considered punch at a Boise State player post game and his hot-headed jawing with the home crowd. It’s one thing to show aggression in your game by fighting for every single inch and bashing opposing defenses with your body. It’s a completely other thing when you show your aggression by cold-cocking other players and having to be dragged away from opposing fans.
Blount has already begun repairing his reputation by handling his suspension well and then honestly answering questions at both the Senior Bowl and Scouting Combine. However he will continue to face tough scrutiny by teams worried that even a mid-round investment could be wasted if he loses his cool either on the field or off. It’s hard to say how much headway Blount has made against his character ding but everything I have heard so far has been good and it sounds like he has been genuinely contrite. If he can convince teams like he is convincing me I think he could be paired very nicely with a smaller, more agile back and be a very good addition to a teams run game. - 10. Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State 6’5/8” 239 - Every NFL Draft season we talk about whether various players coming out of college are able to ‘carry the full load’ because they split carries in their school’s backfield or succeeded against
.
Dixon doesn’t have that problem. The running back from Ole Miss was the bell cow for his offense, carrying the ball 910 times in four years for a total of 4,233 yards and 42 touchdowns. Dixon was incredibly productive and proved he could be depended upon to tote the rock often.
A truly huge back, Dixon excels in short-yardage and goal line situations. He has a nice burst and is able to hit a hole quick and has no compunction with dropping his shoulders and lowering the boom on a defender. With his size, Dixon will often carry defenders for extra yards as well. Dixon is rock solid in the pass game, having caught 56 passes for 449 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per catch.
Dixon isn’t the fastest back in the draft and isn’t going to win any foot-races. He won’t be a home-run hitting back but he can get the tough yards and be a consistent force in the run game. He could very well be responsible for a large number of carries at the pro level. In a league where teams often hold onto more than one running back, Dixon offers a team the option to not only have a big bruising back to wear defenses down for a smaller back, but also become a full time back if a team needed him to. - 11. Shawnbrey McNeal, Southern Methodist 5’10” 190 - Not familiar with McNeal? You aren’t alone. Few had heard of McNeal as spent two unproductive seasons with Miami before transferring to SMU. When he arrived, McNeal put up a very good season, compiled 1,268 yards and a dozen touchdowns on 236 carries.
During that time, McNeal showed great awareness and instincts, finding the smallest holes to slip through between defenders. He is very elusive both in the backfield and in open space, where his speed, agility and ability to cut back make him incredibly dangerous. His speed is pretty good overall and McNeal definitely has that second gear that allows him to break a long run. He also proved to be a good receiver out of the backfield.
The biggest knock on McNeal is size. At 5’10”, 190 lbs he is very diminutive and it’s hard to imagine he could withstand a full year’s pounding as a lead back. Of course his lack of size and bulk makes it difficult for him to be effective blocking as well. Finally, with just one year with significant carries it is hard to gauge whether we have seen his ceiling or his floor as a player.
With his speed and big play ability, I believe he could be utilized by a smart team in much the way a Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook or Leon Washington might be used. Not as a chief ball carrier, but as someone who could be set in the backfield or split out wide as the situation warranted. As a member of a multiple RB backfield, McNeal could have a huge impact. - 12. Lonyae Miller, Fresno State 5’11” 220 - Miller really got lost in the shuffle at Fresno State, where he shared time with a lot of other backs most notably Ryan Mathews. When he did get the ball, Miller showed some good explosion through the hole followed by very good speed which can produce some big plays. When he played at the Senior Bowl this February in Mobile, he showed all that off as well as some nice agility and overall athleticism.
Unfortunately, Miller’s overall skill-set is limited. He doesn’t show a great deal of vision and misses opportunities to cut back during a run. Miller tends to run a bit high, and while he has good speed it’s really just straight-line speed. He’s also a bit slight and doesn’t look like he will hold up to a lot of big hits nor do much good in blocking duties.
A one-cut-and-go runner, Miller is likely to be a backup or at best a part of a larger running back by committee. Even if he can overcome his skill limitations and add some mass, he is likely to have a limited overall role in an offense though he could serve well as a back-up or change of pace back. - 13. Dimitri Nance, Arizona State 6’2” 223 - Nance has a lot of very big pluses in my mind. He is a strong, patient runner who can follow his blockers, then cut off them to hit a hole while showing the vision to see those holes form and the instinct to know when to go. He has a nice burst to get loose and can make all the cuts you like a running back to be capable of to get past the defense. Nance shows the agility, strength and balance to overcome a big hit or an arm tackle and still get that extra yard or two. When a defender does get ahold of him, Nance keeps those legs pumping to fight for every yard. He’s a fierce competitor who will also bring that to his blocking, though he still has to improve in that area. Between that and his pass-catching ability, Nance was a productive member of the Sun Devil passing offense.
Nance struggles in several areas and the top issue is with ball protection. Nance had a habit of putting the ball on the turf at Arizona State and then showed that unfortunate tendency off again at the East-West Shrine game. That is the very first thing he has to change or he won’t last long in the NFL. Coupled with his lack of elite speed or explosiveness, his ball security issues will scare some teams off. That said, if he can improve in that area-something that is very much within his grasp- he could be a great addition to an offense. - 14. Darius Marshall, Marshall 5’10” 189 - In terms of his skill-set, Marshall is a triple threat:he can run the ball, catch the ball and return the ball. Marshall shows a great deal of patience when running the ball, both when allowing his blockers to get lined up or waiting for holes to be opened. He’s very quick and shows good balance which, with his pad level and forward lean, make him trouble for defenders trying to tackle him.
Marshall doesn’t have the speed to run away from defenders, lacks size, and isn’t much of a blocker. His basic athletic ability and agility, coupled with good receiving and returner skills make him someone a team might look for later in the Draft. He may get a look on occasion in the rushing attack, but likely he’ll make or break his career on kick returns. - 15. Chris Brown, Oklahoma 5’10” 202 - Brown is a tough, hard running back who will attack a running lane aggressively and will lower his shoulder and deliver a blow to tacklers, allowing him to break arm tackles and gain extra yards after contact. In his time at Oklahoma, Brown showed great patience while waiting for a hole to open, but decisiveness when it did. He waits for a blocker or hole - he sees the block line up or the hole open - and then he hits it hard. He is also a willing blocker who will step in to keep a quarterback on his feet, or serve as an outlet target if need be.
Brown isn’t terribly elusive and he’s far quicker than he is fast. While he does several things well, he doesn’t light it up with any aspect of his game and it’s possible we’ve already seen most of what he is capable of. I suspect he will find a home with a team in the market for a utility-type running back; a guy who can produce in a few different ways but won’t be expected to step in long term as a starter. - 16. Keiland Williams, LSU 5’11” 225 - Williams only got a limited amount of touches due to primarily serving as a back-up during his career at LSU. He did make the most of it, averaging a 6.0 yards per carry. He possess good balance and strength and will fight through arm tackles to gain more ground, though will not make the defense miss in close quarters. Williams is quick but not fast and won’t break off too many big runs where he outruns the defense. He runs very smoothly and can adjust on the fly to make the cuts he needs to in order to gain yards. He can also catch the ball very naturally. Adds some value in pass protection and can return kicks.
Williams definitely could see a lot of time as a change-of-pace back with some upside but how much is a little difficult to tell given his role as backup. he could contribute as a special team player for a while as a team hones his skills. - 17. James Starks, Buffalo 6’1” 203 - Starks is a player who, while not the most gifted in any one way, makes the most of his abilities through hard work and determination. He doesn’t have great speed, isn’t terribly explosive and doesn’t have a great deal of burst through the hole. But he runs incredibly tough, keeping his legs moving even after being wrapped up and isn’t afraid to drop his shoulder and deliver a big hit. He has outstanding patience and will wait for the hole to open or follow his blockers until an opportunity arises to make a break. While he isn’t going to explode out of the hole, he’ll run right through an initial arm-tackle and can stay on his feet after being hit or delivering one of his own.
Starks missed the 2009 season with a shoulder injury and that will hurt his value as well. I think Starks has a chance to at least contribute as a back-up but his limited overall skills probably mean that’s all he’ll be for whatever the length of his career is. - 18. Ben Tate, Auburn 5’11” 214 - While not a speed demon by any means, Tate is a quick, patient runner who always runs hard. He can find some success between the tackles where his toughness helps him gain ground. In college, he showed the vision to find gaps to run through and see the holes forming. He doesn’t have elite speed but will wear defenses out as the game progresses with his tough running style. Tate needs to increase his lower body strength to help him break arm-tackles and clear through traffic. He could contribute to the passing game as a receiving target but isn’t a great blocker and that might limit his opportunities in that aspect of the game.
Tate put up some respectable numbers at Auburn and had an outstanding Senior year. It will be a little tough to translate that to a high level of NFL success given some of his current limitations. But if he can increase his strength and improve his pass blocking skills, he could provide help as a third down back. - 19. Stafon Johnson, USC 5’10” 214 - Stafon Johnson is best known for a weight-lifting accident in which he crushed his neck and larynx when a weight bar fell on him. It’s been a long way back and a nice story watching him recover in time to make a reasonably good showing at the Combine and it high-lites the toughness and competitive spirit which marks Johnson’s game.
Despite missing 2009, there is plenty of game film to look at for Johnson, as he was an important part of the Trojan attack for two years before the accident. In it, you’ll see a tough runner who can gut out tough yards after contact or change direction instantly to make a tackler miss. He can make the corner and is dangerous when he does so, even though he doesn’t have elite speed. He tends to run a bit too upright, which could leave him open to some big hits.
Johnson is happy to bring his competitive streak to pass protection as well and has shown he can handle kick returns on special teams. There is some thought he might also serve on punt returns, though he’ll admit that while he has practiced shagging punts, he hasn’t done it in a game since high school.
Still, special teams is likely to be where Johnson starts out. While willing, he needs to improve his pass protection skills. His injury has caused some to worry he might be a bit of a health risk. Once he proves the neck injury is past him, improves blocking and perhaps changes his running style, I think Johnson will actually be a good back-up running back who can fill multiple roles on a team. - 20. Keith Toston, Oklahoma State 6’0” 210 - Toston is a one-cut runner who isn’t going to make anyone miss very often. He doesn’t stop and start smoothly or easily and can get caught up in traffic when there isn’t a clean lane. When he finds a lane, he doesn’t have enough burst getting through it, and when he does get though it, isn’t a burner who will run away from defenders.
Toston is a guy who runs very hard, and has the vision both to see holes in the backfield and find spac to run in the open field. Sure, he won’t win too many footraces, but he gains yards the old fashioned way: by keeping his legs pumping and delivering hard hits on defenders. This is a back who can be very tough to bring down as his sense of balance and overall strength allow him to keep on his feet and moving forward. Toston is also a good reciever.
Toston really only had one season as a starter at Oklahoma State, but was able to take the job in his Senior year and had a very nice season. In the right situation (a team who favors a one cut and run type of ground game) he could emerge as a very solid backup with some upside.
